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Increasing concerns exist regarding the possibility of warfare involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the desire to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been confined to short statements on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for maritime entry calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that moves to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Border

Currently, there are little evidence of major military movements in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the military, the officer, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, the territory was governed by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders signed a statement that the conflict was finished – a move that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened again.