A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
